86 of 186 tracked profitable whales are holding or adding; 29 distributing, 71 exited.
Q: What exactly is each tracked profitable wallet doing with its position?
≥75% of bag held, principal recovered or ≥3x, no selling in 30D
Recovered ≥100% of principal and still holds ≥40% of the bag
Net +10% or more of holdings bought in 7D
First buy within 7D
No significant buying or selling in 30D
Sold ≥5% of the bag in 30D, ≥40% remains
<40% of bag remains, or ≥20% sold in 7D
<5% of the acquired tokens remain
Excluded from every whale metric: 2 market maker wallets. Their flow is shown in activity, labelled, but never counted as whale behavior.
Q: Have the whales already taken their initial capital out - and how much of the bag did they keep?
Principal recovered = realized value ÷ initial cost. Bag remaining = tokens still held ÷ tokens originally acquired (LP, staking and own-cluster transfers count as held).
Q: Is qualified money entering or leaving - counting only observed swaps and OTC trades?
Transfers, LP moves, bridging and CEX deposits are not counted as flow: they are not observed trades. CEX deposits appear in activity as estimated disposals.
Q: What did tracked wallets just do - and what kind of transaction was it really?
| Wallet | Action | Amount | Classification | PnL | Bag remaining | Principal rec. | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0xe3b0…3babWhale | Added LP | 875K BOW $12K | LP ADD | — | — | — | 4h ago | |
0xa84c…e1f8Whale | Sell | 504K BOW $7K | SWAP | 193x | 90% | 1,921% | 6h ago | |
0x8c31…c3beWhale | Sell | 758K BOW $11K | SWAP | 1.2x | 0% | 124% | 8h ago | |
0x8c31…c3beWhale | Sell | 242K BOW $3K | SWAP | 1.2x | 0% | 124% | 9h ago | |
0xf063…e174Whale | Sell | 170K BOW $2K | SWAP | 0.9x | 2% | 82% | 9h ago | |
0xe601…0d08Whale | Sent | 682K BOW $3K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.0x | 0% | 0% | 11h ago | |
0xd5ad…5900Whale | Sell | 125K BOW $588 | SWAP | 1.1x | 17% | 78% | 12h ago | |
0xc8bd…26daWhale | Sent | 3.3M BOW $16K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.3x | 0% | 30% | 13h ago | |
0xa88b…bda2Whale | Sell | 228K BOW $1K | SWAP | — | — | — | 13h ago | |
0x6fd9…72caWhale | Sell | 6.8M BOW $32K | SWAP | 1.4x | 0% | 142% | 13h ago | |
0xbfdf…ebbdWhale | Sent | 425K BOW $2K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.4x | 0% | 38% | 15h ago | |
0xbfdf…ebbdWhale | Sell | 500K BOW $2K | SWAP | 0.4x | 0% | 38% | 15h ago | |
0xbfdf…ebbdWhale | Sell | 600K BOW $3K | SWAP | 0.4x | 0% | 38% | 15h ago | |
0xbfdf…ebbdWhale | Received | 1.5M BOW $7K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.4x | 0% | 38% | 15h ago | |
0x0fde…4d40Whale | Sell | 535K BOW $3K | SWAP | 1.3x | 18% | 84% | 15h ago | |
0xe601…0d08Whale | Sent | 220K BOW $1K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.0x | 0% | 0% | 17h ago | |
0x1887…3cddWhale | Buy | 107K BOW $502 | SWAP | 1.2x | 40% | 49% | 18h ago | |
0x1887…3cddWhale | Buy | 916K BOW $4K | SWAP | 1.2x | 40% | 49% | 20h ago |
Q: When whales sold, where did the money go - and who rotated into BOW?
Q: How much supply can actually hit the market - and how much of that sits with whales?
| Holder type | Tokens | % supply | Wallets | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity poolslocked / inactive | 37.3M | 3.7% | 85% | |
| Market makers | 6.5M | 0.7% | 85% | |
| Active whales | 390M | 39.0% | 80% | |
| Retail | 73.7M | 7.4% | 60% | |
| Unclassified | 492M | 49.2% | 30% |
Q: How much latent sell pressure exists - given profit, behavior and concentration, not profit alone?
13.4% of identified tradable float is held by tracked wallets currently at >10x unrealized profit.
Base pressure rises with unrealized multiple; proven holders (principal out, bag kept, no 30D selling) are discounted ×0.6; recent distributors (×1.35), young wallets and low-quality wallets are marked up; current buyers are discounted.
Q: Which individual wallets show the strongest conviction - by behavior, not just size?