44 of 174 tracked profitable whales are holding or adding; 44 distributing, 86 exited.
Q: What exactly is each tracked profitable wallet doing with its position?
≥75% of bag held, principal recovered or ≥3x, no selling in 30D
Recovered ≥100% of principal and still holds ≥40% of the bag
Net +10% or more of holdings bought in 7D
First buy within 7D
No significant buying or selling in 30D
Sold ≥5% of the bag in 30D, ≥40% remains
<40% of bag remains, or ≥20% sold in 7D
<5% of the acquired tokens remain
Excluded from every whale metric: 1 market maker wallet. Their flow is shown in activity, labelled, but never counted as whale behavior.
Q: Have the whales already taken their initial capital out - and how much of the bag did they keep?
Principal recovered = realized value ÷ initial cost. Bag remaining = tokens still held ÷ tokens originally acquired (LP, staking and own-cluster transfers count as held).
Q: Is qualified money entering or leaving - counting only observed swaps and OTC trades?
Transfers, LP moves, bridging and CEX deposits are not counted as flow: they are not observed trades. CEX deposits appear in activity as estimated disposals.
Q: What did tracked wallets just do - and what kind of transaction was it really?
| Wallet | Action | Amount | Classification | PnL | Bag remaining | Principal rec. | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0x0ad1…d9dfWhale | Sell | 25.0K ORBIO $1K | SWAP | 1.1x | 1% | 113% | 10m ago | |
0x0ad1…d9dfWhale | Sell | 24.2K ORBIO $1K | SWAP | 1.1x | 1% | 113% | 13m ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sent | 85.0K ORBIO $5K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 1h ago | |
0xc95a…a287Whale | Sell | 192K ORBIO $10K | SWAP | 69x | 52% | 3,641% | 1h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sell | 60.0K ORBIO $3K | SWAP | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sent | 50.0K ORBIO $3K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0x7ea5…6ca5Whale | Sell | 200K ORBIO $11K | SWAP | 0.4x | 0% | 43% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sell | 40.0K ORBIO $2K | SWAP | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0x314f…3b1fWhale | Sell | 9.2K ORBIO $504 | SWAP | 58x | 97% | 197% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sell | 40.0K ORBIO $2K | SWAP | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0x7ea5…6ca5Whale | Received | 200K ORBIO $11K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.4x | 0% | 43% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sell | 45.0K ORBIO $2K | SWAP | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sent | 45.0K ORBIO $2K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sent | 35.0K ORBIO $2K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sent | 70.0K ORBIO $4K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sent | 59.0K ORBIO $3K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sent | 52.0K ORBIO $3K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago | |
0xe3cb…b4d5Whale | Sell | 54.0K ORBIO $3K | SWAP | 1.5x | 16% | 120% | 2h ago |
Q: When whales sold, where did the money go - and who rotated into ORBIO?
Q: How much supply can actually hit the market - and how much of that sits with whales?
| Holder type | Tokens | % supply | Wallets | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity poolslocked / inactive | 28.8M | 3.0% | 85% | |
| Active whales | 391M | 41.1% | 80% | |
| Retail | 18.3M | 1.9% | 60% | |
| Unclassified | 512M | 53.9% | 30% |
Q: How much latent sell pressure exists - given profit, behavior and concentration, not profit alone?
18.2% of identified tradable float is held by tracked wallets currently at >10x unrealized profit.
Base pressure rises with unrealized multiple; proven holders (principal out, bag kept, no 30D selling) are discounted ×0.6; recent distributors (×1.35), young wallets and low-quality wallets are marked up; current buyers are discounted.
Q: Which individual wallets show the strongest conviction - by behavior, not just size?