18 of 86 tracked profitable whales are holding or adding; 7 distributing, 61 exited.
Q: What exactly is each tracked profitable wallet doing with its position?
≥75% of bag held, principal recovered or ≥3x, no selling in 30D
Recovered ≥100% of principal and still holds ≥40% of the bag
Net +10% or more of holdings bought in 7D
First buy within 7D
No significant buying or selling in 30D
Sold ≥5% of the bag in 30D, ≥40% remains
<40% of bag remains, or ≥20% sold in 7D
<5% of the acquired tokens remain
Excluded from every whale metric: 1 market maker wallet. Their flow is shown in activity, labelled, but never counted as whale behavior.
Q: Have the whales already taken their initial capital out - and how much of the bag did they keep?
Principal recovered = realized value ÷ initial cost. Bag remaining = tokens still held ÷ tokens originally acquired (LP, staking and own-cluster transfers count as held).
Q: Is qualified money entering or leaving - counting only observed swaps and OTC trades?
Transfers, LP moves, bridging and CEX deposits are not counted as flow: they are not observed trades. CEX deposits appear in activity as estimated disposals.
Q: What did tracked wallets just do - and what kind of transaction was it really?
| Wallet | Action | Amount | Classification | PnL | Bag remaining | Principal rec. | Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0x39ca…be61Whale | Sell | 12.5K STANDARD $3K | SWAP | 1.3x | 0% | 133% | 19m ago | |
0x50f2…0e17Whale | Sent | 50.0K STANDARD $11K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.4x | 27% | 21% | 22m ago | |
0x20c5…7412Whale | Sent | 50.0K STANDARD $11K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.7x | 70% | 0% | 22m ago | |
0x20c5…7412Whale | Sent | 20.0K STANDARD $5K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.7x | 70% | 0% | 24m ago | |
0x33d3…c102Whale | Sell | 6.3K STANDARD $1K | SWAP | — | — | — | 3h ago | |
0x33d3…c102Whale | Sell | 6.7K STANDARD $1K | SWAP | — | — | — | 3h ago | |
0x4cfd…d15bWhale | Sell | 4.2K STANDARD $941 | SWAP | 0.5x | 0% | 53% | 4h ago | |
0x255e…bdf2Whale | Sell | 30.0K STANDARD $6K | SWAP | 0.5x | 71% | 8% | 5h ago | |
0xd01f…4f54Whale | Sell | 8.4K STANDARD $2K | SWAP | 0.5x | 7% | 49% | 6h ago | |
0x255e…bdf2Whale | Sell | 46.4K STANDARD $10K | SWAP | 0.5x | 71% | 8% | 7h ago | |
0x977b…7f75Whale | Sell | 7.7K STANDARD $2K | SWAP | 1.0x | 0% | 100% | 8h ago | |
0x4cfd…d15bWhale | Sent | 4.2K STANDARD $904 | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.5x | 0% | 53% | 9h ago | |
0x4564…98f0Whale | Sent | 18.0K STANDARD $4K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.1x | 3% | 11% | 9h ago | |
0xe18b…31a9Whale | Sent | 60.0K STANDARD $13K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.7x | 20% | 57% | 10h ago | |
0x7a5f…f01eWhale | Sent | 200K STANDARD $45K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.1x | 15% | 0% | 10h ago | |
0xa2ee…fa94Whale | Sent | 300K STANDARD $67K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.2x | 0% | 20% | 10h ago | |
0xa2ee…fa94Whale | Sent | 300K STANDARD $67K | TRANSFERlow conf. | 0.2x | 0% | 20% | 10h ago | |
0xeedc…3420Whale | Buy | 21.5K STANDARD $5K | SWAP | 1.0x | 100% | 0% | 11h ago |
Q: When whales sold, where did the money go - and who rotated into STANDARD?
Q: How much supply can actually hit the market - and how much of that sits with whales?
| Holder type | Tokens | % supply | Wallets | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liquidity poolslocked / inactive | 35.8M | 42.5% | 85% | |
| Active whales | 27.8M | 33.0% | 80% | |
| Retail | 2.3M | 2.8% | 60% | |
| Unclassified | 18.4M | 21.8% | 30% |
Q: How much latent sell pressure exists - given profit, behavior and concentration, not profit alone?
0.0% of identified tradable float is held by tracked wallets currently at >10x unrealized profit.
Base pressure rises with unrealized multiple; proven holders (principal out, bag kept, no 30D selling) are discounted ×0.6; recent distributors (×1.35), young wallets and low-quality wallets are marked up; current buyers are discounted.
Q: Which individual wallets show the strongest conviction - by behavior, not just size?